Delawar Jan
The Pakistan
Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) ‘tsunami’ that raged in October 2011 has apparently
receded quite substantially, but the PTI leaders always challenge this
statement. If they are to be believed, the ‘tsunami’ is rising that is
eventually going to take them to the power corridors. As PTI chief Imran Khan
sees himself in the prime minister’s chair, his lieutenants in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa are cocksure about a clean sweep in the province. They believe the
party enjoys a widespread support in the province and the election results on
May 11 are going to blindside the opponents. The PTI assumes that it will form
the next government in Pakhtunkhwa and clinch substantial number of seats in
the National Assembly. For many, such expectations are overambitious and
unrealistic.
“PTI’s 20 seats in the
provincial assembly will even flabbergast me. And in National Assembly seats
from KP, I don’t see them entering double figure,” said Iqbal Khattak, a senior
journalist and political analyst.
The party does have
support among the people, but that is scattered and not concentrated in one
particularly region where the party can make gains. How the PTI is going to
convert that scattered support into a decisive win in Pakhtunkhwa remains a
major challenge, though its followers are dedicated ones. “I will not vote for
a candidate other than PTI’s,” said Saleemullah, a 23-year-old young man from
PK-92 in the remote Upper Dir. His dedication to PTI was so ingrained that he wanted
to vote a PTI candidate whose name he did not know. “I will offer my blood to
Imran Khan, if he asked for it,” another young man Shahzeb interjected.
Emotions asides,
currently the party does not seem to be in a position to win significant number
of seats in the National Assembly or Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly, if sweeping upsets
in favour of PTI don’t take place. Looking at the candidates the party has
fielded on National Assembly seats, only seven appear strong who can win or put
up tough contest. They are Imran Khan from NA-1 Peshawar, party’s central
secretary general Pervez Khattak from NA-5 Nowshera, PTI’s provincial president
Asad Qaiser from NA-13 Swabi, Muhammad Azhar Jadoon from NA-17 Abbotabad,
Sardar Muhammad Yaqoob from NA-18 Abbotabad, Muhammand Azam Khan Swati from
NA-20 Mansehra and Salimur Rahman from NA-30 Swat.
A thumping majority of
the candidates that PTI has fielded in both national and provincial
constituencies are young and new faces. Most of them are unfamiliar to
electorate and new to electoral politics. Imran Khan honoured his promise of
awarding tickets to new faces, but will the general people who have been
whining about the traditional politicians vote for them? Will people contribute
to changing the electoral politics in the country, and in particular KP, that
is monopolized by landlords, rich and powerful people?
“The response from
people is enormous,” said Mahmood Jan, who is contesting his maiden election
from PK-7 in Peshawar. “Actually, people say they have already decided to vote
for PTI,” he added. Syed Ishtiaq, who is running election from PK-11 in
Peshawar, is also upbeat after seeing people’s support. “People aspire for
change in the country. You talk to a rickshaw driver, a tangawala or educated
people, all of them want to vote for PTI,” he said.
Iqbal Khattak does not
agree with them. He came up with an interesting analysis. “Change is the slogan
that represents a national agenda. But in KP it’s different,” he said. “For a
party to get a landslide victory in this province, it needs to have a regional
slogan like MMA had in 2002 and ANP in 2008,” he added.
The six-party alliance
of religious parties, MMA, swept elections in KP in 2002 on ‘vote against US’
slogan and ANP on peace slogan in 2008. “Note the fact that both the parties
swept elections in KP only but PTI does not have such a regional issue to
secure a sweeping victory. So, I don’t think they can give a stunning surprise,”
he added.
At the moment, the
party could not generate a wave that it created in October 2011 to ride on it
to victory. People are not as thrilled as they were about the PTI after the
Lahore rally. Imran Khan has been trying to move heaven and earth to create
that wave just before the elections but people yet to see it.
He launched election
campaign from Karak by holding a rally there on April 22. He addressed another
one in Dera Ismail Khan the same day. The next day, he tried to woo people in
Dargai in Malakand Agency, in Och in Lower Dir and in Wari in Upper Dir. His
young Tabdeeli Razakar (volunteers for change) are knocking at every door and
stopping every passerby to persuade them to vote for Imran’s party. The impact
is, however, missing.
PTI is still hoping for
a groundswell of opinion in its favour. It has fielded candidates on all 99 provincial
assembly and 47 National Assembly seats from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Fata. It
gives it the chance to maximise the number of seats in the event of any upsurge
in its popularity. “People in the province seem to be ambivalent at the moment about
which party to vote,” Iqbal Khattak said, indicating that PTI still has the
opportunity to win people’s support.
Also, most of the PTI
candidates are unfamiliar faces who stand thin chances to win, if miracle does
not happen. PTI leaders will argue that the MMA candidates in 2002 were far
more unfamiliar faces than the PTI’s. The volatile situation in KP may also hinder
its effort clinch victory. “I think turnout would be key to PTI’s chances,”
Khattak said. “If the turnout stays at the usual 30 per cent, the PTI’s chances
to win majority are slim. But if the turnout touches 50 per cent, it means the
youth will have come to the polling stations. In this scenario, the PTI can bring
surprises,” he added.
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